A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
