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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.