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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still