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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he concluded.